DIGITAL RENMINBI: IMPACTS ON ECONOMIC INTEGRATION OF THE GREATER BAY AREA

摘要

THE DEGREE OF ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN THE GUANGDONG-HONG KONG-MACAU GREATER BAY AREA (GBA), AS REFLECTED IN THE MOBILITY OF TRADE AND CAPITAL FLOWS, HAS BEEN STRENGTHENED BY FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS, BUT OBSTACLES INCLUDING BORDER EFFECTS, CAPITAL CONTROLS, DIFFERENCES OF EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEMS AND INADEQUATE CROSS-REGIONAL COORDINATION REMAIN. DIGITAL RENMINBI (E-CNY) HAS BEEN TESTED IN SHENZHEN, A CORE GBA CITY SINCE APRIL 2020. IF E-CNY IS ADOPTED IN THE GBA, THE AREA WILL EFFECTIVELY BECOME A SINGLE CURRENCY ZONE. WHETHER THE GBA CONSTITUTES AN “OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA” (OCA) DEPENDS ON ITS DEGREE OF ECONOMIC INTEGRATION. THIS PAPER COMPUTES REAL INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIAL (RID), UNCOVERED INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIAL (UID) AND DEVIATION FROM PURCHASING POWER PARITY (PPD) OF EACH REGIONAL PAIR BASED ON DATA OF INTEREST RATES, EXCHANGE RATES AND PRICE INDEXES FROM 2016M2 TO 2022M7. ALL UID, PPD AND RID SERIES HAVE MEANS WITHIN ABOUT 1 PERCENT POINT FROM 0, INDICATING HIGH DEGREES OF FINANCIAL INTEGRATION, REAL INTEGRATION AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GUANGDONG-MACAU RID, ALL SERIES ARE STATIONARY, IMPLYING MEAN-REVERTING BEHAVIOR. HENCE, THE PARITIES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD BOTH IN THE SHORT RUN AND IN THE LONG RUN, WHICH IS A CONDITION FOR AN OCA IN THE GBA. FURTHERMORE, THE REGRESSION ANALYSIS FINDS THAT THE TEST LAUNCH OF E-CNY IN SHENZHEN (ADJUSTED FOR THE COVID-19 OUTBREAK) HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON ALL RIDS, GUANGDONG-MACAU PPD AND HONG KONG-MACAU PPD. WITH MERELY TWO AND A HALF YEARS OF TEST LAUNCH, THE INTRODUCTION OF E-CNY ALREADY HAD IMPACTS ON OVERALL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN THE GBA.