NOWCASTING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND GROSS GAMING REVENUE OF MACAU: A THEORETICAL AND CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

Abstract

THIS PAPER AIMED TO BUILD UP THE THEORICAL AND CONCEPTUAL UNDERSTANDING OF FUTURE FORECASTING STUDY OF MACAU’S GDP AND GROSS GAMING REVENUE (GGR) BY CO-MOVEMENT OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS. MACAU GDP AND GGR SHOWED CO-MOVEMENTS WITH A NUMBER OF TIME SERIES ECONOMIC INDICATORS, INCLUDING CHINA’S EXPORTS AND IMPORTS, CHINA’S MANUFACTURING PMI, NON-MANUFACTURING PMI, CHINA'S ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION GROWTH, SHARE PRICE OF SOME MACAU’S GAMING OPERATORS, ETC. THESE TIME SERIES DATA CAN BE FOUND IN STATISTICS DEPARTMENTS OF CHINA, MACAU AND HONG KONG, STOCK EXCHANGES, AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS SUCH AS THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND (IMF), THE WORLD BANK, THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION (WTO). BURNS AND MITCHELL’S STUDY IN 1946 IDENTIFIED CO-MOVEMENTS BETWEEN ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND BEING FURTHER CARRIED OUT AND DEVELOPED LEADING, COINCIDENT AND LAGGING INDICATORS, WHICH IS ESSENTIAL FOR FUTURE ECONOMETRIC MODELS AND NOWCASTING TECHNIQUES DEVELOPMENTS TO STUDY THESE CO-MOVEMENTS. IN PARTICULAR, WITH THE PROPER APPLICATION OF NOWCASTING TECHNIQUES, FUTURE STUDIES CAN EXPLOIT THE DATA OF LEADING AND COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS TO FORECAST MACAU’S GDP AND GGR WITHIN AN ACCEPTABLE LEVEL OF ERROR.  SINCE MACAU IS A “MONOTOWN,” WHERE THE GAMING REVENUE MAKES A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION TO THE ECONOMY. THE FORECASTING OF GAMING REVENUE IS CRUCIAL AS IT AIDS THE GAMBLING AND TOURISM INDUSTRIES IN PREPARING SUPPLY AND PROVIDES INFORMATION TO POLICYMAKERS TO PLAN FOR THE NEAR FUTURE. THIS RESEARCH ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO UNDERSTAND MACAU’S ECONOMY BY INVESTIGATING ITS INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL ECONOMIC VARIABLES.