SHORT-TERM FORECASTING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND GROSS GAMING REVENUE OF MACAU USING ECONOMETRIC AND MACHINE LEARNING APPROACHES

ABSTRACT

THIS WORK INVESTIGATES HOW INSTITUTIONAL FORCES SHAPE THE INBOUND OPEN INNOVATION (OI) PROCESSES AND ABSORPTIVE CAPACITIES OF SMES WITHIN THE UNIQUE POLYCENTRIC ENVIRONMENT OF THE GUANGDONG-HONG KONG-MACAO GREATER BAY AREA (GBA). THE CENTRAL RESEARCH QUESTION ASKS: HOW DO INSTITUTIONAL FORCES INFLUENCE THE OPEN INNOVATION PROCESSES AND ABSORPTIVE CAPACITIES OF FIRMS FROM THE GBA? THE RESEARCH EXPLORES THE IMPACT OF COERCIVE (REGULATORY), NORMATIVE (CULTURAL), AND MIMETIC (SOCIAL) PRESSURES, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTITUTIONAL ISOMORPHISM ACROSS FIRM TYPES AND THE ROLE OF INNOVATION INTERMEDIARIES. BASED ON IN-DEPTH QUALITATIVE INTERVIEWS WITH SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES (SMES) IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE, HONG KONG, AND MACAO, THIS PRELIMINARY STUDY REVEALS A STRIKING TRIPARTITE MODEL OF OI. GUANGDONG SMES OPERATE WITHIN A SELF-SUFFICIENT, SUPPLIER-DRIVEN ECOSYSTEM, PRIORITIZING ENGINEERING PRAGMATISM AND SELECTIVE OPENNESS. HONG KONG SMES ACT AS INSTITUTIONAL INTEGRATORS, LEVERAGING FORMAL ECOSYSTEMS LIKE CYBERPORT AND THEIR GLOBAL POSITIONING TO BRIDGE MAINLAND CAPABILITIES WITH INTERNATIONAL MARKETS, DESPITE FACING SIGNIFICANT CROSS-BORDER FRICTION. MACAO SMES, OPERATING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INSTITUTIONAL VOIDS, RELY ON INFORMAL NETWORKS AND REPLICATION. NEW FINDS SUGGESTS SOME FIRMS EXHIBIT PIONEERING BEHAVIOR BY ACTING AS REGULATORY ENTREPRENEURS OR USING THEIR SMALL SCALE AS A STRATEGIC TESTBED. THESE FINDINGS DEMONSTRATE THAT OI IS NOT A UNIFORM PRACTICE BUT IS DEEPLY CONTINGENT ON THE LOCAL INSTITUTIONAL LOGIC. FURTHERMORE, SUCCESSFUL FIRMS ENGAGE IN INSTITUTIONAL ARBITRAGE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE DIFFERENT INSTITUTIONAL DIFFERENCES. THE RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS THAT SUCCESSFUL OI IN THE GBA REQUIRES NAVIGATING, RATHER THAN IGNORING THESE DIFFERENCES. THIS THESIS WILL OUTLINE THESE EMERGENT THEMES, DISCUSS THEIR THEORETICAL IMPLICATIONS FOR INSTITUTIONAL THEORY AND OPEN INNOVATION, AND PRESENT THE NEXT STEPS FOR DEVELOPING A ROBUST GBA-WIDE TYPOLOGY FRAMEWORK OF INNOVATION PRACTICES.