圖書館

ABSTRACT

SINCE EARLY TIMES, THE EFFECTS OF A BOOMING SECTOR IN OTHER SECTORS OF A SMALL ECONOMY HAVE BEEN OF INTEREST TO SCHOLARS. THERE IS A GENERAL PERCEPTION THAT THE BOOMING GAMING SECTOR HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE OVERALL GROWTH IN MACAU THROUGH THE TRICKLE-DOWN EFFECT, PASSING ON THE BENEFITS OF GROWTH TO OTHER SECTORS. AFTER THE LIBERALIZATION OF THE GAMING INDUSTRY IN 2002, THIS BOOMING SECTOR EXPERIENCED SEVERAL YEARS OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH, BECOMING THE DRIVING INDUSTRY FOR MACAO’S ECONOMY. SEVERAL SCHOLARS AND RESEARCHERS HAVE DEDICATED THEIR STUDIES TO THE EFFECTS OF THE CASINO GAMING INDUSTRY AS A BOOMING SECTOR IN SUCH A SMALL ECONOMY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A GAP IN WHAT CONCERNS MEASURING THE INFLUENCE OF THE GAMING SECTOR AS A DRIVING INDUSTRY FOR SEVERAL OTHER SECTORS OR FOLLOWING INDUSTRIES OF MACAU’S ECONOMY. THE PURPOSE OF THIS RESEARCH STUDY IS TO INVESTIGATE IN WHAT MEASURE THE GAMING SECTOR IN MACAO LEVERAGED THE OTHER ECONOMIC SECTORS AND HOW RELATED OR CORRELATED ARE THE DIFFERENT INDUSTRIES OF MACAO’S ECONOMY. A PROTOCOL-DRIVEN UNDERSTANDING OF THE STATE OF THE ART ON THE INTERRELATIONS BETWEEN ECONOMIC SECTORS AND DIFFERENT TECHNIQUES USED TO STUDY THOSE INTER-RELATIONS WAS CONDUCTED THROUGH A SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW. GIVEN THE LIMITED AVAILABLE DATA ON THE GROSS VALUE ADDED (GVA), OR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) ON THE SUPPLY SIDE, AS A CENTRAL MEASURE OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN THE DIFFERENT SECTORS, SEVERAL POSSIBLE INTERPOLATION MODELS USING AUXILIARY HIGH-FREQUENCY DATA (INDICATORS) WERE COMPARED, TO ACHIEVE THE OPTIMAL MODEL FOR INTERPOLATION OF EACH VARIABLE. SEVERAL FORECASTS FOR THE FUTURE PERFORMANCE OF MACAU'S FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC SECTORS WERE PRESENTED BASED ON DIFFERENT REGRESSION TECHNIQUES. AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) MODELS WERE DEVELOPED TO ASSESS THE DEPENDENCE OF THE FUTURE PERFORMANCE OF A SECTOR’S GVA ON ITS PAST PERFORMANCE. OPTIMAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE (VAR) MODELS WERE CREATED TO IDENTIFY THE EXPLANATORY POWER OF SOME SECTORS OF MACAU’S ECONOMY IN OTHERS.  BASED ON AVAILABLE AUXILIARY DATA IN HIGH-FREQUENCY (QUARTERLY) IT WAS POSSIBLE TO INTERPOLATE THE QUARTERLY GVA PER ECONOMIC SECTOR, AVAILABLE ONLY IN LOW-FREQUENCY (ANNUALLY), FOR THE MAJOR SECTORS OF MACAO’S ECONOMY. SOME SECTORS HAVE A CONSIDERABLE EXPLANATORY POWER ON THE PERFORMANCE OF OTHER SECTORS, HOWEVER, THE PROPOSED REGRESSION MODELS DID NOT IDENTIFY A CLEAR RELATION BETWEEN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE GAMING SECTOR AND THE PERFORMANCE OF OTHER MAJOR SECTORS FROM MACAO’S ECONOMY