EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS OF STOCK MARKET PREDICTION USING AUTOREGRESSIVE AND MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS
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Metadata
ORIGINAL TITLE
EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS OF STOCK MARKET PREDICTION USING AUTOREGRESSIVE AND MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS
AUTHOR (LAST NAME, FIRST NAME)
WONG, NGA MAN
DEGREE LEVEL
FACULTY / RESEARCH UNIT
PROGRAMME
DOCUMENT TYPE
GRADUATE YEAR
2024
LANGUAGE
ABSTRACT
IN THE CURRENT CONTEXT OF INTENSIFIED ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION, CHINESE STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES (SOES) HAVE ACTIVELY RESPONDED TO THE "BELT AND ROAD" INITIATIVE BY EXPANDING THEIR OVERSEAS OPERATIONS, SEEKING NEW GROWTH POINTS THROUGH COMPETITION AND COOPERATION IN THE GLOBAL MARKET. HOWEVER, ALONG WITH OPPORTUNITIES COME THE NECESSITY FOR RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE OVERSEAS OPERATIONS OF SOES. BASED ON THEORIES OF SYSTEMATIC AND NON-SYSTEMATIC RISKS, THIS THESIS EMPLOYS METHODS SUCH AS CASE STUDY ANALYSIS AND MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION TO THOROUGHLY EXAMINE KEY RISK TYPES IN SOES’ OVERSEAS OPERATIONS, INCLUDING POLITICAL RISKS AND EXCHANGE RATE RISKS. USING QUANTITATIVE MODELS LIKE THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS (AHP) AND NEURAL NETWORK EARLY-WARNING MODELS, THE THESIS EMPIRICALLY TESTS THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MECHANISMS FOR RISK IDENTIFICATION, ASSESSMENT, AND CONTROL. DATA SOURCES INCLUDE NATIONAL STATISTICS AND CORPORATE ANNUAL REPORTS, AND TECHNIQUES SUCH AS PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS (PCA) AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS ARE APPLIED TO REVEAL STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF RISK FACTORS AND THE INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL LINKAGE MECHANISMS OF RISK EVENTS. THE THESIS POINTS OUT THAT THE MANAGEMENT OF RISKS IN OVERSEAS OPERATIONS OF SOES NOT ONLY RELIES ON SCIENTIFIC ASSESSMENT AND PRECISE EARLY WARNING BUT ALSO REQUIRES THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK AND GOVERNANCE SYSTEM THAT ALIGNS WITH INTERNATIONAL RULES. THROUGH IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS OF THE OVERSEAS OPERATIONS OF ENTERPRISES LIKE PETROCHINA AND HUAWEI, THE THESIS DISTILLS STRATEGIES FOR RISK PREVENTION AND CONTROL, SUCH AS DIVERSIFIED INVESTMENT STRATEGIES AND THE CONSTRUCTION OF COMPLIANCE RISK CONTROL SYSTEMS, AND CONDUCTS A COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION OF THE CURRENT RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM, PROPOSING PATHWAYS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT. THE OUTCOMES OF THE RESEARCH AIM TO HELP SOES ENHANCE THEIR LEVEL OF RISK MANAGEMENT, ENSURE NATIONAL ECONOMIC SECURITY, AND ALSO PROVIDE THEORETICAL GUIDANCE AND PRACTICAL REFERENCE FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF INTERNATIONAL STRATEGIES BY SOES.